US Automakers Face Unprecedented Threat of Collapse
As sales fall dramatically, US automakers are running out of cash and face a bleak 2009, GM may collapse
By Alessio Ricciuti
November 12, 2008 10:24 AM
Filed Under: American, Chrysler, Corporate/Financial, Ford, General Motors, Industry
Where to begin?
GM shares have fallen to their lowest point in 65 years. On Tuesday GM stock closed at $2.85 (no misplaced period there, Ford shares are $1.77). It's market value is now 1.8 billion US, or about 2 percent of Toyota's.
GM and Ford are burning through their cash reserves at unprecedented levels. GM is losing about 1 billion US a month while Ford spent 7.7 billion in the third quarter of the year.
October sales reports sounded a death knell for Detroit. Sales were down 31.9 percent overall compared to the same period last year. For GM, they were down 45 percent. Ford sales were down 30 percent, Chrysler 35 percent.
Sales have been hurt due to the sagging economy but also because of the credit crisis as dealers and consumers are having a hard time finding financing for car purchases. Even Toyota has had to drastically reduce it's sale projections but the company does not face the same risks as its US counterparts.
Detroit is scrambling to adapt to an automotive market in 2009 that could contract to about 11 million unit sales, compared to recent years where sales hovered at around 16 million units. But GM, or even Ford and Chrysler, may not survive the year.
GM needs to raise cash. It has floated the idea of selling off the Hummer brand or the money-losing Saab. Volvo, owned by Ford, is also a money-loser for that automaker. GM had to abandon its merger talks with Chrysler owner Cerberus Capital Management due to a lack of cash to fund the deal.
GM says it will run out of cash by mid-2009 if something isn't done urgently.
Bailout
The Detroit automakers are seeking about 25 billion US in loans from the US government for help in developing new products, to meet the demands of consumers for more fuel efficient cars. They are also seeking an additional 25 billion US in emergency loans to get them through next year, which will be tough by all accounts.
GM's CEO Rick Wagoner says that the automakers cannot wait for the Obama administration to come into office and that by January 20th when Obama is sworn in, it may be too late.
Consequences
If GM collapses, it could be catastrophic. It will take many of its suppliers down too. This may shut down Ford production, since Ford uses many of the same suppliers such as Lear and Johnson Controls. It could lead to complete collapse of the industry the likes of which have never been seen. About 2.4 million jobs are threatened directly and another 7 million other jobs related to the industry face serious risks too.
Stay tuned.
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Comments
and don't worry, americans could still have caddy to make them proud!
Unemployment would rise much more than 2.91%. There are only roughly 100 million taxpayers in the US today out of roughly 300 million people total. The other 200 million are either retired, children, unemployed, or simply not working. Thus a loss of 7 million jobs would create a roughly 7% increase in unemployment.
unemployment is currently sitting at roughly 5% nation wide, with a work force of roughly 154 million. Pensioners and people on dissability do not count and are not affected by this. So if 5% of those 154 are unemployed, then 7/147=4.8% which would bring the overall national unemployment rate to 9.8%, which is what i call a recession. 10% is the point where the economy starts taking a very fast fall. Although i think when they say 7 million that the figure is very highly inflated because that would mean for every employee at GM there are 20 somewhere else. I highly doubt that there are 20 and if there are i doubt most of them are even within the US. The government will have to make a choice, the hard way which would be to let them die and let the economy self adjust OR go into an even larger national Debt to prolongue the downfall of these companies, which will happen regardless of a 25billion $ loan or 250billion $, all it changes is the date.
I would say Cadillac is the first American Automaker to be somewhat on the right track; I personally like Cadillac and I wish that it could, momentarily, be placed aside to do it's own thing while GM sorts itself out.
The American manufacturers need to start building cars for the world market, and cars that are true to the times; The US has a rich motor history; pre-70s we saw some of the greatest models to ever come out of that market; cars that lead the pack not just followed then the big 3 got comfortable and complacency set in... the rest is, as they say, history.
Let's face it, American cars aren't selling like hotcakes at the moment.
Let's face it, American cars aren't selling like hotcakes at the moment.
Recent GM offerings seem substantially better than the generation they are replacing. Saturn is practically Opel.
If you look at the stock prices of auto manufacturers all over the world, you'll see that they are all hurting.
Talking about layoffs and factory closures is irrelevant when your sales drop 30% in a month with current year projections already having been adjusted from a year ago. The industry just doesn't turn on a dime. I would imaging it is also a bean-counter challenge determining what the real savings are with lay offs or plant closures when having to pay out benefits anyway. Who in today's global economy has benefits and manufacturing pay scales like the UAW?
Hopefully the big three will get what they need through easing loan requirements from the Department of Energy.
Yes, I would buy a Volt, but would prefer to wait for the plug-in equivalent for the Saturn Vue.
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